This week, the water leaving Lake Nacimiento dropped to roughly a quarter of what it had been. From Saturday, Oct. 3, through Monday, Oct. 5, the Monterey County Water Resources Agency released about 225 cubic feet per second from Nacimiento Dam. On Tuesday the release was 145 cfs. On Wednesday it was 61 cfs, and on Thursday it was 60. The agency's daily reservoir report now says it is "currently making minimum releases from Nacimiento and San Antonio Reservoirs to support the habitat below the dams."
From Oak Shores, the summer drawdown is basically over. The lake that fell week after week since June will now slip only a few feet between now and the first real storm.
How Far the Lake Has Come Down Since June
At 7 a.m. on Oct. 8, the lake stood at 742.7 feet of elevation and held 127,635 acre-feet of water, or 34% of capacity. On June 1 it stood at 768.2 feet with 219,800 acre-feet. That's 25.5 feet of shoreline uncovered in a little over four months and about 42% of the stored water gone. It works out to roughly six feet a month all summer.
The decline kept a steady pace. Storage was 180,288 acre-feet on Aug. 1 and 153,883 acre-feet at 750.85 feet on Aug. 31. Even in the first week of October, before the cut, the lake fell 0.65 feet in five days, from 743.35 feet on Oct. 3 to 742.7 on Oct. 8. Over those same days the surface area shrank from 3,080 acres to 3,052.
The slowdown is already showing in the daily readings. Between Oct. 7 and Oct. 8, the first full day at minimum release, the elevation dropped five hundredths of a foot.
Where the Summer Water Went
Most of that summer water was released on purpose, on a schedule set months ago. Monterey County's operations policy describes Nacimiento releases as serving groundwater recharge and conservation in the Salinas Valley. They also supply the Salinas River Diversion Facility, which can impound water from April 1 through Oct. 31. This year's conservation release season from Nacimiento started on March 26. By May 11 the release was already 280 cfs and climbing as the weather warmed, according to an MCWRA board report.
The policy also lets the agency reduce releases during the September through November stream maintenance period. That applies once the diversion facility or the downstream conservation goals no longer need the water. The agency hasn't published a reason for this particular cut on Oct. 6. The policy describes exactly this kind of fall taper.
Not every acre-foot went downriver. The county's posted 2026 reservoir release schedule splits Nacimiento's water among four uses:
- Releases to the Salinas River, projected at a 320 cfs monthly average in both August and September
- Evaporation, estimated at 2,290 acre-feet in August, falling to 580 acre-feet in November as the days cool
- The Nacimiento Water Project, San Luis Obispo County's pipeline, capped at 15,750 acre-feet of diversions per water year running Oct. 1 through Sept. 30
- Lakeside water use, estimated at about 1,750 acre-feet a year and counted separately from the pipeline
Set against those 320 cfs summer averages, a 60 cfs release looks like a different lake.
The Schedule Says the Next Few Feet Come Slowly
The same schedule projects how the lake should behave from here. It's dated June 25, 2026 and marked as a draft. It mixes actual figures with projections and assumes no additional storms, so any inflow would change the numbers. These are its Nacimiento projections:
| Month | Avg. Nacimiento release | Beginning-of-month elevation | Storage |
|---|---|---|---|
| September | 320 cfs | 750.2 ft | 40% |
| October | 181 cfs | 743.0 ft | 34% |
| November | 60 cfs | 738.6 ft | 31% |
| December | 60 cfs | 736.9 ft | 29% |
| Following January | n/a | 735.2 ft | 28% |
Two things in the table matter for a lakefront lot. First, the forecast has been close. It expected 743.0 feet at the start of October, and the lake read 742.7 on Oct. 8. It expected 750.2 feet at the start of September, and the lake read 750.85 on Aug. 31.
Second, the slope flattens hard. Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 1 the schedule projects 1.7 feet of decline, and between Dec. 1 and January another 1.7 feet. Over the summer, the lake dropped about that much in nine days.
October is the one month still in transition. The schedule assumed releases would average 181 cfs this month. Releases have been at 60 or 61 cfs since Oct. 7, so if they stay there, October's average will come in below the forecast and less water will leave the lake than the table assumed. A footnote on the schedule also says the Water Resources Advisory Committee may consider adjusting releases around holiday periods to benefit recreation.
Winter works differently. MCWRA's policy keeps flood protection space in the reservoir between 787.75 and 800 feet, with 800 feet as the maximum. How much space it reserves depends on season, conditions and forecasts. At 742.7 feet, the lake has about 45 feet to rise before it reaches that flood pool. When storms arrive, the change can come much faster than this fall's slow decline.
What a Slow Fall Means at the Dock
The county's boat dock program page gives dock owners two warnings that fit this season. As the level declines, docks should be adjusted to the water level so they don't strand and lose access. When the level rises, a dock that isn't properly secured can come loose and float off as debris, damaging its own structure or neighboring docks. The same page links to the agency's daily reservoir data, the report that showed this week's release cut.
That makes the next several weeks unusually steady. Through the summer, a dock set right on Monday could be sitting differently by the weekend. With a projected 1.7 feet a month through November and December, one adjustment can hold for a long while. Then the first significant storm turns the rising-water warning into the one that counts.
Oak Shores' two four-lane launch ramps are part of the same picture. No current low-water ramp notice turned up for this fall, and a lake that has nearly stopped dropping leaves less reason to expect one before winter.
Fall on the Water and Around the Clubhouse
A lake holding steady at about 3,000 surface acres makes a good fall lake. Lake Nacimiento Resort lists spring and fall as the best seasons for white bass. Its fishing guidance names the main channel, the Narrows, Oak Shores, Town Creek and Las Tablas Creek as places to look. That's the Resort's general seasonal advice, not a report on this year's fishing.
The Resort's off-season runs Oct. 1 through April 30. Its policies page lists daily hours of 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. and says accommodations are available year-round. Launch rules don't change with the season. Monterey County requires a valid Vessel Screening Permit before launching, unless the boat is enrolled in Nacimiento's Resident Vessel Program. The Resort's screening requires boats to arrive clean, drained and dry with the plug removed. Boats used on a listed infested water in the past 30 days are turned away.
Here's what's on the community calendar:
- Bunco, the first Thursday of each month at 6:30 p.m., and Bingo, the fourth Thursday at 6:30 p.m., both at the Clubhouse, according to the Oak Shores events page.
- Saturday, Oct. 24, the Oak Shores Poker Run. The events page lists the date but no start time and points to the Oak Shores Community Recreation and Events Facebook page for updates.
- Saturday, Oct. 24, Trunk or Treat at Lake Nacimiento Resort, from 4:30 to 6:30 p.m., with candy, games, food and local vendors, according to Monterey Bay Parent. Monterey County's special events calendar lists it in the Main Parking Lot.
- Friday, Oct. 30, the ad deadline for the annual Oak Shores and Heritage Ranch business directories. Paso Robles Daily News reports that Access Publishing will mail more than 5,000 copies in January, with businesses, resident listings, maps and community information.
The Oak Shores homepage is also still collecting donations for Fire Station 34's building and operations funds.
One note on the numbers in this post. MCWRA's lake figures are provisional 7 a.m. readings from USGS gauges, so treat each one as that morning's snapshot. The release schedule is a forecast that the next storm will rewrite. As of Oct. 8, 2026, the lake sits at 742.7 feet, the releases are at the habitat minimum, and the schedule projects about 5.8 more feet of decline by the start of December and another 1.7 feet by January.
If you own a lakefront lot or dock at Oak Shores, or you're weighing one, it helps to know how these release schedules, dock rules and seasonal swings play out over a full year. Michael Aanerud is glad to walk through what the lake's numbers mean for a specific property. Let's Connect.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
